The Texas Report 9/15

The Texas Report 9/15

The Final Days of the Impeachment Trial for Attorney General Ken Paxton

Today is likely the final day in the impeachment trial of suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton. At 9:00 a.m., the Senate convened, and the prosecutors and defense began closing statements to make the final case for each side in this historic trial.

Ken Paxton didn't attend most of the trial, but he was in the chambers today.

The trial began last Tuesday and was prompted by a House investigation into a $3.3 million settlement between Paxton and four whistleblowers. Following Paxton's investigation and alleged misconduct, the House voted overwhelmingly to impeach Paxton and set up a Senate trial.

Over the last ten days, the Texas Senate has been the venue for one of the most high-profile events in Texas political history. After eight days of witness testimony and hours upon hours of lawyerly objections. 30 of the 31 state senators are deliberating and ultimately deciding the political future for Ken Paxton.

Lt. Governor Dan Patrick has acted as the judge during the trial and said jurors will have till 8:00 p.m. today to decide. If they cannot decide, they'll continue deliberations on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. If needed, on Sunday, Senators will be sequestered in the Capitol until they decide on the 16 articles of impeachment.

Most Capitol observers think the decision will come sometime this afternoon or early tomorrow.

Why did this happen:

• In his closing remarks, House Impeachment Manager Andrew Murr said Paxton "has no regard for the principles of honor and integrity." "He has betrayed us and the people of Texas, and if he is given the opportunity, he will continue to abuse the power given to him."

• The House case centered on Paxton's relationship with Austin real estate investor Nate Paul, his close friend and political donor. House prosecution alleged that Paxton abused his office to assist Paul in investigating his enemies, delay foreclosure sales of his properties, gain the upper hand in a lawsuit with a charity, and obtain confidential files on the police investigating him.

• Paul allegedly helped cover up and get a job for Paxton's mistress and may have paid for a major renovation of the Attorney General's Austin home.

• Eight former Paxton employees started this process after choosing to go to the FBI in 2020 over concerns about Paxton's relationship with Paul.

Paxton's defense closing remarks essentially blamed the entire process as an effort by the Speaker to try and get back at Paxton for accusing the Speaker of presiding while drunk. (No evidence has supported this, and the House's investigation started in March.) Additionally, Buzbee decided to mock David Maxwell, a whistleblower and legendary law enforcement officer.

Buzbee has argued that the Bush dynasty and other establishment Republican organizations worked together to take out Paxton after supporting his opponents during the most recent election.

Paxton's team continued to hit on that the attorney general was doing his job by asking his deputies to look into conspiracy claims against law enforcement by Nate Paul. Buzbee argued that the whistleblowers should have never gone to the FBI and instead reached out to Paxton to let them know their concerns.

Representative Jeff Leach (R-Plano) gave the final words of the trial. Leach is a well-known state representative from Paxton's Collin County, fellow Baylor grad, and House Judiciary & Civil Jurisprudence chair. During his closing remarks, Leach spoke on his years-like relationship with the Attorney General.

Leach explained that Paxton had been a true mentor and brother during their time in public service. However, he said that Paxton is unfit for office regardless of their friendship. He added he was troubled that Paxton had rejected 12 invitations to appear before his House committee to answer questions about the $3.3 million whistleblower settlement he was asking the Legislature to fund.

"Not once did he answer questions, in public or in private, which is largely one of the reasons we're here today," Leach said. He requested that senators, "as painful as it might be, to sustain the articles of impeachment."

It will take a lot of time to analyze the full trial, and there were various moments where both sides made compelling arguments for their side.

Regardless, this vote is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in Texas history. The state GOP, Empower Texas, and other far-right organizations have tried to put as much pressure as possible on the jurors and promised there will be hell to pay in the upcoming Republican primary for anyone who votes against Paxton.

These groups have already given their list of major House targets, and Senators who vote against Paxton have to weigh their potential political future.

This has genuinely been a stunning last several days, where some of the foremost Texas lawyers battled against one another in a Senate trial to determine the (at least political) future of Ken Paxton.

The impeachment trial has been framed by Ken Paxton and his allies as an attack by "RINOs and far-left radicals." The majority of the Texas House Republican caucus voted against him, many of whom can't be considered RINOs but had real concerns about his conduct as Attorney General.

Buzbee believes this will be the death of the Bush dynasty in Texas, but it looks like the beginning of a civil war between different factions of Texas Republicans. Traditional establishment, pro-business Republicans will likely face the most competitive primary against the far-right in several years. This trial and our upcoming election could remake the composition of Texas's ruling party.

Of note, neither Paxton nor his mistress (Laura Olson) testified. Olson was in attendance at the trial, and was rumored that if called would plead the fifth on stand. Some sort of agreement was worked out between the two parties and she wasn’t forced to testify.

We won’t hazard a guess at the upcoming vote, but will do our part in analyzing it’s implications.

In non-Paxton news, the Texas Education Agency (TEA) has temporarily delayed the release of the 2023 A-F Accountability Ratings.

The A-F system is intended to be a tool that evaluates how well districts and campuses help students reach certain learning goals. As prescribed by statute, A-F ratings must balance multiple objectives to ensure a rigorous, transparent, and fair system, and are based on:

• The better of:

  • a) Achievement – how well all students have learned certain academic content – and

  • b) Progress – how much all students have gained academically over the year

• along with (c) Closing the Gaps – how well schools raise academic performance among certain groups of students.

Per the TEA, "Ratings will be postponed for approximately one month will allow for a further re-examination of the baseline data used in the calculation of Progress to ensure ratings reflect the most appropriate goals for students.

The final rating methodology will be posted once this analysis of the growth data is complete, and about two weeks later, A-F ratings will be issued for parents, educators, and the public to use to help Texas schools continue to improve."

The A-F system goes through regular refreshes and changes. It has also been a major point of contention for many legislators and public safety advocates. The most recent refresh began in October 2021, and in January 2023, the agency proposed using a baseline of average-level student growth for the 2018-19 and 2021-22 school years to address the impact of COVID-19. Many politicians have advocated against the data release and for major changes to the existing system.

TEA said, "analysis of that growth data shows that the 2021-22 growth was more anomalous than expected, so setting baselines that partially incorporate data from the 2021-22 school year may not adequately consider the impact of the pandemic."

With the upcoming education special session(s), the A-F system will likely be an important factor in policy discussions.